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Sociedad vs R. Racing Club

Sat 17 Apr 2027, 14:00 UTC · Round 32 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

Sociedad win: 48.5%

Draw: 33.3%

R. Racing Club win: 18.2%

Predicted: Sociedad

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 81.9%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 45.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.17

More corners: R. Racing Club (40.6% home / 59.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Sociedad

Yes

Probability Sociedad wins or draws: 70.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Sociedad Clearest lean of the available outcomes (48% vs next-best 33%). (48.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (82.0% model probability) High

Corners R. Racing Club (more corners) (59.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Sociedad win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (70.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.